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Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-07T16:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16214/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-09T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
:Issued: 2020 Dec 08 0957 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A full halo CME was first seen by LASCO C2 at 16:24 UT on 7 December, with
a speed of 1280 km/s, associated with a long duration C7.4 flare from NOAA
AR 2790. It is expected to arrive to the Earth around 17:00 UT on December
9.
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From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Tuesday, December 8, 2020 5:05 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert
 
This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2020-12-09T17:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 90
Lead Time: 39.53 hour(s)
Difference: 8.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2020-12-08T09:57Z
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